Briefcase nr 52
Drought threat continues

The worst drought in more than a decade continues to devastate southern Africa

Across southern Africa the worst drought in more than a decade is destroying crops, pushing up food prices and leaving millions in need of food aid. The United Nations fears that if the drought continues many families will be forced to adopt self-destructive practices, such as selling off their assets, to ensure short-term survival.
Lesotho is facing a predicted near total failure of the summer maize harvest. Although recent rainfall has moistened the soil in most parts of the country this has come too late to save the harvest – as it has throughout the region. Water sources are drying up and some rivers that usually flow strongly have been reduced to nothing more than a feeble stream. Years of over grazing and dependence on maize are other factors that have burdened Lesotho with soil depleted of nutrients. General distributions of food aid were suspended this month as there is only enough for the country’s most vulnerable, including the sick, the elderly, children under five and pregnant women. The Prime Minister is expected to appeal for increased international assistance.

The southern region of Malawi is most vulnerable to drought. The Department of Meteorological Services confirms that half the country has not received the levels of rainfall needed for crop growth, with the western sector of the region receiving less than 50% of normal rainfall. The government is set to release maize from the grain reserve to meet the high demand from families, who are increasingly dependent on the market as household stocks dwindle. At the same time the government has imposed restrictions on maize exports in an effort to contain the maize price as demand increases. The government of Malawi recently appealed for assistance to feed 3.5 million people in the south.

Some areas of Mozambique are experiencing their lowest rainfall in 50 years. Ironically in other parts of the country dams and bridges have collapsed due to heavy rainfall. This has hampered World Food Programme (WFP) food aid deliveries, particularly in Magude district. Stocks already in place will continue to be distributed to isolated areas of the district by boat. Over the past four weeks the Cholera Treatment Centre in Maputo has reported an increase in cholera cases in Beira City and Nampula Province, where heavy rains have led to deteriorating hygienic conditions. Food shortages are worst in the southern province of Gaza where more than 11% of children under five are suffering from malnutrition. WFP's implementing partners in Inhambane province have expressed concern at the deteriorating food security situation in the northern districts of the province, and the rise in malnutrition rates among children.

In Swaziland the National Disaster Task Force has convened an emergency meeting of government officials to discuss declaring a national disaster. The Deputy Prime Minister's office is preparing a cabinet paper that will be presented shortly. Average rainfall is reported to be 55% below normal. While recent rains may improve grass cover and replenish water in some areas improving conditions for livestock and the supply of water available for human consumption, improved prospects for crop production are unlikely. Just under a quarter of the Swazi nation is receiving food aid.

Although rainfall in Zambia is reportedly close to seasonal norms, and the food security situation has remained fairly stable, low-income families are experiencing growing difficulty in getting enough maize. A cholera epidemic in the capital city of Lusaka has resulted in the suspension of wet rations in a number of sites falling under the Urban Intervention Programme (UI). Water purification tablets have been distributed to these sites, but WFP monitoring is currently restricted. Planning is underway to expand the UI programme to Livingstone and the Copperbelt, the other two major urban areas, which have the second and third highest HIV/AIDS prevalence rates in the country. A major focus of the programme will be targeting vulnerable out-of-school youths and orphans. Kala refugee camp in Luapula Province continues to receive a steady flow of refugees from the Democratic Republic of Congo.

In Zimbabwe lack of rain has resulted in the almost complete failure of the maize crop and has increased shortages of other staple foods. The maize price in local markets has increased by 40%. A food security assessment in Pande district has confirmed that around 7 000 people in the northern areas of the district will rely on food assistance in the coming months. The death toll from cholera in the country has risen to 19. The SADC Regional Warning System Special Agromet update for January indicates that the late start to the rainy season and erratic rainfall in some areas have led to a decrease in the areas planted. This has raised fears of a reduction in potential crop yields. Although most parts of the country have experienced a wet spell recently, there are dry pockets in the southern districts of Masvingo, Matabeleland South and parts of Manicaland. Field reports by the UN Relief and Recovery Unit indicate that early-planted maize is wilting in some areas due to moisture stress, although small grains have not been affected as much. Areas most affected are Mwenezi, Chipinge, Chivi and most districts in Matabeleland South.


 8-13 Feb precipitation outlook for Africa map

View full map

  Key Indicators
 

1st quarter 2004:
Lesotho
Predicted near total crop failure
Malawi
South most vulnerable
Maize exports restricted
Gov’t appeal to feed 3.5 mil
Mozambique
Lowest rainfall in 50 yrs
Gaza: 11% under 5 year olds malnourished
Increase in cholera cases
Hygiene conditions worsening
Swaziland
55% below normal rainfall
Under ¼ population receive aid
Zambia
Cholera epidemic in Lusaka
Increasing intake of DRC refugees
Zimbabwe
19 Cholera deaths
Almost complete failure of maize crops
40% increase in maize price
Northern Panda: 7,000 need food aid next few months
Most affected areas: Mwenezi, Chipinge, Chivi and Matebeleland south

Millions in need of food aid

Serious drought threatens southern Africa, AP

Saving southern Africa from starvation, Mail & Guardian

WFP Emergency Report No. 5

SADC Special Agromet-Update Analysis of Developing Drought Situation in Southern Africa 2003/04 Crop Growing Season

SADC Agromet-Update – Rainfall, Vegetation and Crop Monitoring, 26 January 2004

FEWS NET - Africa Weather Hazards Assessment

African Weather Summary 11-20 January 2004

National Centers for Environmental Predication - Ten Day Precipitation Outlook for Africa

SADC Drought Monitoring Centre Outlook February-April 2004

Outlook for Crop Growing Conditions in Southern Africa for 2003/04

SADC Ten Day Drought Watch for Southern Africa, 29 January 2004

Related SAHIMS Briefcases:

Drought spreads

Drought hits hard

SAHIMS is a project of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
Johannesburg, 6 February 2004

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