Briefcase nr 51
Drought spreads

Drought is worsening and having a severe impact in the southern African region

This will increase regional dependency on donor food supplies
The drought in the region has left millions in need of emergency food aid. It has affected South Africa, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Lesotho and Swaziland. Rainfall, which was badly needed in November and December, came too late for planting and the resulting failed crops and harvest shortfalls are apparent. By
mid-2004 as many as 15 million people in South Africa alone will need food aid. This translates into around 34% of the total population. According to USAID the total number of people facing food insecurity in Zimbabwe could rise to
about 7.5 million by 2005.

The South African government has released US $35.5 million to assist nearly 19 million rural people affected by one of the worst droughts in recent decades. Inter Press Service News Agency confirmed that at present 4 million people in rural areas are getting emergency water, and the government has begun distributing food in the worst affected provinces. The director of the South African National Disaster Management Centre, told IRIN that just over US $14 million will be used to provide drinking water; more than
US $8 million for food and close to US $5 million will go to the department of agriculture to supply animal fodder. A pledge for additional emergency aid will be presented to the South African cabinet. The National Chamber of Milling predicts that the price of maize meal, the staple diet of most poor South Africans, will rise by 20% spreading the affect of the drought beyond the disaster areas. Unemployment is also expected to rise as a result of the drought. These impacts put the country at the centre of a food crisis that is also affecting five other nations – Malawi, Mozambique, Lesotho, Swaziland and Zambia.

Aid agencies are concerned that operations to feed 6.5 million people in southern Africa, excluding South Africa,
are being restricted by a serious shortage of donor funding. Michael Huggins, regional public affairs officer for the World Food Program (WFP) commented, “In Lesotho we are looking at total crop failure. In parts of Mozambique the situation will be more severe than during 2003. The overall picture of the food situation in Southern Africa, which is further compounded by the spread of HIV/AIDS, is bleak for the next 12 months.”

Huggins went on, “When there is no food you lose an entire generation to AIDS. People die and leave their children to grandparents. In the process, no knowledge of farming is passed on to the children.” The non governmental organisation, Christian Aid, commented that, “delayed rains, a lack of seeds and fertilisers, and the HIV/AIDS pandemic have impacted heavily on agricultural recovery in the poorest communities”. Deepening poverty in the region continues to increase the risk of food shortages for both urban and rural people and the need for some form of food aid until June 2004.

The regional programme officer at World Vision, told AlertNet that, "In Zimbabwe it's going from bad to worse. The most desperate people in the region are certainly in Zimbabwe.” The WFP launched an appeal for US $311 million for the region in July 2003, but has received pledges for only about two-thirds of its target, despite a decision in late January by the European Community (EC) to increase its contribution to Zimbabwe by US $25 million to US $83 million. "There is a massive shortfall in the appeal of around $100 million," Huggins said. The WFP has had to halve its ration of maize to 5 kg a person in Zimbabwe and stop distribution of cooking oil and pulses because of the scale of the food shortage and the shortfall in donor pledges.

There have been reports that prostitution is on the increase as young children are desperate to get food. This is a disturbing development given the HIV/AIDS epidemic that is affecting Zimbabwe. The WFP said that it will not be able to assist 500 000 vulnerable people, mainly in Zimbabwe and Mozambique, due to resource shortfalls. According to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, most Zimbabwean rural households have been forced to reduce their food consumption or the number of meals per day. The effects of the drought in the southern African region are severe and the dependency on donors for food supplies will continue to increase. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has convened a Mid-Season Strategic Assessment and Disaster Preparedness meeting from 4-6 February, in Maputo. The programme includes regional and country Updates on Current Climate, Agriculture and Water Conditions. The Southern African Humanitarian Information Management System (SAHIMS) will publish material from these discussions as it becomes available.


 8-13 Feb prcipitation outlook for africa map

View full map

  Key Indicators
  South Africa
4 million need immediate assistance
15 million could be affected
Disaster areas:
Limpopo, KwaZulu-Natal
Northern Cape, Free State
Mpumalanga, North West
Eastern Cape.
4 million tonnes of white maize expected.
2.67 million tonnes of yellow maize expected.
National consumption of maize: 4 million tonnes.

Are the drought conditions over, SADC

Serious drought threatens southern Africa, AP

Saving southern Africa from starvation, Mail & Guardian

WFP Emergency Report No. 5

SADC Special Agromet-Update Analysis of Developing Drought Situation in Southern Africa 2003/04 Crop Growing Season

SADC Agromet-Update – Rainfall, Vegetation and Crop Monitoring, 26 January 2004

FEWS NET - Africa Weather Hazards Assessment

African Weather Summary 11-20 January 2004

National Centers for Environmental Predication - Ten Day Precipitation Outlook for Africa

Outlook for Crop Growing Conditions in Southern Africa for 2003/04

SADC Ten Day Drought Watch for Southern Africa, 29 January 2004

SAHIMS is a project of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
Johannesburg, 30 January 2004

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