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Economists
from Heidelberg University and the World Bank
have modelled the impact of the HIV virus. Their
research report warns that South Africa, just
one of the many
African countries ravaged by
HIV/AIDS, could face economic
collapse within a
few generations unless it adopts a more urgent
response to its HIV/AIDS epidemic.
The report,
The Long-run Economic Costs of AIDS: theory and
an application to South Africa, says that most
studies have overlooked the long-term damage
caused by the disease.
In sub-Saharan Africa,
the region hardest-hit by the epidemic, existing
estimates range between a modest
0.3% and 1.5%
annual decline in GDP growth due to the impact
of the virus. The latest world population data
sheet
of the United States based Population
Reference Bureau (PRB) says that the population
of HIV/AIDS ravaged southern Africa is expected
to decline by 22% by 2050.
It estimates that
South Africa's population will drop from
44 million this year to about 35 million in
2025, and the to just over 32 million in 2050.
The Heidelberg-World Bank report differs from
its predecessors in its focus on so-called
‘human capital’, the stock of experience, skills
and education, which contributes to an economy's
growth potential. The sharp reduction in
economic growth can be attributed to HIV/AIDS
primarily targeting young adults,
the most
productive members of society. "By doing that it
prevents the transfer of human capital from one
generation to another," the report states. As
young adults die off,
more and more children
will be taken out of education and pushed into
the workforce. By 2080, full-time child labour
will be ubiquitous, with an inescapable descent
into economic "backwardness" a generation later.
The overall effect, the authors say, will be to
rapidly erode a nation's intellectual capacity.
Economies will regress and, for example, the
children of engineers will revert to subsistence
farming as the disease reduces the earning
potential of survivors. The South African AIDS
lobby group, the Treatment Action Campaign (TAC),
has recently leaked key findings of a joint
report by the ministries of health and finance.
It estimates that 1.7 million lives could be
saved by 2010 if antiretroviral (ARV) drugs were
given to everyone needing them. If ARVs are not
provided up to
1.8 million more children would
be orphaned by 2010.
Drug coverage of 100% would
reduce this number by
860 000, and
50% coverage
would reduce it by 350 000, the leaked report
found. The total cost of providing the drugs to
everybody needing them would be between
US $1
billion and
$1.09 billion by 2005.
Dr Jong-wook Lee, the new Director-General of
the
World Health Organisation (WHO) declared
that the organisation will provide 3 million
HIV/AIDS patients in
poor countries with key
antiretroviral drugs within two years. On his
first day in office Lee, stressed that tackling
the HIV/AIDS pandemic must be WHO's top
priority.
In 2002, according to the United
Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS,
an estimated 42
million people had been infected with HIV, 3
million people had died from AIDS,
5 million
were newly infected with HIV and around 6
million of those infected needed ARV treatment.
At the end of 2002 an estimated 30 million
Africans were HIV-positive. The figure could be
higher but stigma and discrimination make it
difficult to gather precise statistics. More
than 4.5 million of the 30 million people living
with HIV/AIDS in Africa are in desperate need of
ARV treatment, but only 50 000 of them have
access to the drugs, a senior WHO official has
stated. According to him, the WHO adviser
for HIV/AIDS in Africa, besides the low number
of
HIV positive people on ARVs, only 23% of
those infected
with HIV on the continent and in
need of essential medical care have access to
it.
The WHO adviser for HIV/AIDS in Africa noted
that there are encouraging responses at
national, regional and global levels to efforts
to stem the tide of the disease in Africa.
Some
of the measures so far taken include the
implementation of strategic national plans, the
establishment of mechanisms to co-ordinate
responses,
and the development and adoption of
regional and global health sector strategies.
Others are:
- various declarations by global, sub-regional
and regional
bodies
- a drop in the prices of ARV medicines and
diagnostics and
- increased access to resources available
through the Global
Fund for HIV/AIDS,
Tuberculosis and Malaria,
and
other initiatives.
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