The country's National Scientific Research and Documentation Centre has reported significant increases
in seismic activity around Karthala volcano since May 2002. The number of earth tremors on and around the mountain has increased from around two a day in June 2003 to around 100 a day in August, indicating a possible eruption, reported Mallory Leclerc of the Volcanological Observatory in the Comoros capital, Moroni. "If the current situation continues, the risk of eruption in the short term is strong," he commented. Karthala volcano last erupted in July 1991.

An eruption could be very dramatic with clouds of steam billowing from the lake at the summit of Karthala’s crater, said Leclerc. Data concerning volcanic activity over the
last 200 years indicate that most eruptions have been confined to a limited geographical area and have affected limited numbers of people. In most cases their needs were met through community or family support. However, the consequences of an eruption remain unpredictable. An eruption in 1977 buried the village of Singani, some
20 kilometres (12 miles) south of Moroni, in lava but
no one was killed.

The acting Comoros UN Resident Coordinator, at the time, told IRIN, that: "Some of the major UN agencies are currently working together to come up with an emergency response contingency plan. It still is not clear when the eruption will occur, or if it will occur at all, but we are preparing for a number of possible scenarios". He noted
that a worst-case scenario could affect up to 70 000 residents. "But it is difficult to put an exact number on just how many people are likely to need assistance. We are concerned mainly for villagers living in the southern and central parts of the island. But these things are unpredictable – if Moroni is affected, all the islands will be affected, since all of them depend on services which they mainly get from the capital," he said.

There were also possible health concerns, but he emphasised that aid agencies were equipped to set up epidemic surveillance systems. "Should safe drinking
water become scarce, we will be looking at signs of diarrhoea and cholera. Fortunately, there are coordinating mechanisms in place to deal with cholera, so we are prepared," he emphasised. A United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) representative in Comoros confirmed that information that the volcano had already erupted was unfounded. False rumours had been circulating creating widespread panic.

There were some concerns about the possible impact on preparations of the ongoing tension between the Union government and authorities on Grande Comore. Since the devolution process in 2001 the three islands of Moheli, Anjouan and Grande Comore have assumed authority over most of their own affairs. "We have impressed upon the relevant authorities the need for them to start talking to each other, so that we can all come up with a comprehensive emergency plan which would benefit all the people of the island," the UN Resident Coordinator stressed. At the moment government, non-governmental and international support agencies are continuing their work on the island awaiting any new information.