A comprehensive picture of the severity of the food security situation in southern Africa is gradually emerging and preliminary assessments suggest that several countries and localised areas in others will face critical food shortages in coming months.

Food shortages, combined with persistent poverty and the high burden to families and communities of HIV/AIDS, threaten to put excessive pressure on already vulnerable populations. Although the hunger season typically ends in March or April, below-average crop production in the region
is expected as the result of heavy and erratic rains in some areas, and lengthy dry spells and unusually hot weather in others. Cyclones and flooding have also affected crops in Madagascar, Mozambique, and Zambia. Harvest estimates for Lesotho, Swaziland, South Africa, Zimbabwe and parts
of southern Mozambique and Zambia range from lower than average to bleak.

Official vulnerability assessments are currently underway to determine the extent of food insecurity as well as indicate where targeted interventions may be required. Three Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions (CFSAM) have been carried out in Lesotho, Swaziland and Zimbabwe. National Vulnerability Assessments (VAC) are underway and should
be completed by the end of June/beginning of July in Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, and Zambia. The Zimbabwe VAC is expected to be finalized by the end of July.

Published reports indicate that the overall food security situation in the region is expected to deteriorate early on
in the 2007-2008 marketing year, seriously constraining households’ access to food. In Swaziland, maize production is estimated at 60 percent below last year’s average and crops in Lesotho have been affected by one of the worst droughts in 30 years. A further estimated 4.1 million people in Zimbabwe may need food assistance by early 2008 due
to an extremely poor harvest and a worsening economic crisis. In contrast, Malawi is expected to have a one million MT surplus after national requirements are met, and some areas in Namibia, Mozambique, and Zambia have registered normal or near normal production.

The threat of widespread food insecurity in southern Africa once again highlights the region’s vulnerability to natural disasters and the need to adequately analyse and prepare for national and regional worst-case scenarios. Although the availability of food affects a country’s economy as a whole, the poorest households bear the greatest burden, as they must deplete family stocks, and sell household assets to purchase food at high prices in local markets. This threat also underlines the complex nature of food security and
the necessary combination of both immediate relief and longer-term sustainable solutions. Agencies continue to
work closely with national authorities and partners in each country to monitor the situation and to ensure that contingency plans and appropriate responses will be developed as the situation unfolds over the next months.

Text extracted from: Southern Africa Humanitarian Update,
May 2007 - RIACSO Bulletin